The World Cup has always been a tournament full of surprises, where historical patterns can sometimes lead to conclusions that seem completely opposite to conventional predictions. Here are 14 reasons why the United States could lift the World Cup trophy in 2026.
Can the United States Win the 2026 World Cup?
1. The World Cup Is a Highly Random Tournament
ESPN journalist Ryan O’Hanlon cited a 2009 study by scientists Gerald Skinner and Guy Freeman. Their research suggested that football results only partially reflect the true strength of teams.
According to the study, the strongest team has less than a one-in-three chance of actually winning the World Cup. Because of this high level of randomness, a team not considered among the favorites—such as the United States—can still realistically become champions.
2. The FIFA World No. 1 Never Wins the World Cup
Since the FIFA World Rankings were introduced in 1992, no team has entered a World Cup as the No. 1-ranked nation and gone on to win the tournament.
Examples include:
- Brazil (2006, 2010, 2022)
- Germany (2018)
- Spain (2014)
All arrived as the world’s top-ranked team but failed to win the title.
Eliminated: Argentina
3. The Reigning Ballon d’Or Winner Has Never Won the World Cup
Since the Ballon d’Or was established in 1956, no reigning winner has gone on to win the World Cup in the same cycle.
Notable examples include:
- Ronaldinho
- Lionel Messi
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Karim Benzema
The 2025 Ballon d’Or holder is Ousmane Dembélé.
Eliminated: France
4. First-Time World Cup Participants Never Win
Aside from Uruguay and Italy in the first two World Cups, no debutant nation has ever won the tournament.
Eliminated:
- Cape Verde
- Curaçao
- Jordan
- Uzbekistan
5. No Team Has Ever Won After Qualifying Through the Playoffs
No nation has ever come through intercontinental playoffs or last-chance qualification rounds and then won the World Cup.
The United States, as a co-host, qualified automatically and avoids this problem.
Eliminated:
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Sweden
- Türkiye
- Czech Republic
- DR Congo
- Iraq
6. No Premier League-Winning Manager Has Ever Won the World Cup
No manager has ever won both the Premier League and the World Cup.
The only coach at the 2026 World Cup with a Premier League title is Carlo Ancelotti.
Eliminated: Brazil
7. No Manager Aged 60 or Older Has Won the World Cup
The oldest manager to win a World Cup was Vicente del Bosque at age 59.
Therefore, many teams are ruled out because their managers are already over 60.
Fortunately for the United States, Mauricio Pochettino is still below that threshold.
Eliminated:
- Scotland
- South Africa
- Austria
- Colombia
- Netherlands
- Spain
- Iran
- Uruguay
- Algeria
- Mexico
- Paraguay
- Belgium
- Ghana
8. Teams Without a Major Trophy Rarely Win the World Cup
Since 1966, only England won the World Cup as the first major title in its history.
Therefore, teams that have never won either a World Cup or a continental championship are eliminated.
Eliminated:
- Croatia
- Norway
- Switzerland
- Ecuador
- Haiti
- Panama
9. England Has Never Won a Major Tournament Outside England
England’s only major title remains the 1966 World Cup, won on home soil.
Eliminated: England
10. No Team Outside FIFA’s Top 18 Has Won the World Cup
Since FIFA introduced its rankings, the lowest-ranked World Cup champion was France in 1998, ranked 18th.
The United States currently sits 17th, keeping its dream alive.
Eliminated:
- New Zealand
- Egypt
- Ivory Coast
- Canada
- South Korea
- Australia
- Tunisia
11. No Player Over 40 Has Ever Won the World Cup
The record belongs to goalkeeper Dino Zoff, who was 40 when Italy won in 1982.
And Cristiano Ronaldo is now 41.
Eliminated: Portugal
12. Champions Must Have a Player From Bayern, Liverpool, Inter, or AC Milan
Each of the last 11 World Cup winners featured at least one player from one of these four clubs:
- Bayern Munich
- Liverpool
- Inter Milan
- AC Milan
The United States has Christian Pulisic, who plays for AC Milan.
That’s one more reason to believe in a U.S. triumph.
Eliminated:
- Senegal
- Morocco
13. Teams Eliminated in the Group Stage of Two Consecutive World Cups Never Win the Next One
Germany failed to get out of the group stage in both 2018 and 2022.
Eliminated: Germany
14. Champions Need a Proven International Goal Scorer
Every World Cup winner except France in 1998 had at least one national-team player who had scored 17 or more international goals before the tournament.
Japan does not currently have a player who meets that mark.
Meanwhile, Christian Pulisic has scored 33 goals for the United States.
Eliminated: Japan
The Verdict
After applying all 14 historical “rules,” every traditional favorite—Argentina, France, Brazil, Germany, England, Spain, Portugal, and others—has been eliminated from contention.
Only one team remains standing:
🇺🇸 The United States.
So, according to history, statistics, selective pattern-matching, and a healthy dose of World Cup chaos, the conclusion is obvious:
The United States will win the 2026 World Cup! 🏆🇺🇸⚽